(Japan also signed on to SWIFT actions on February 27.) This invasion did, after all, start with him launching an invasion that seemed bound to hurt Russia in the long run. But the UN vote conceals a great deal of disagreement, especially among the worlds largest and most influential countries divergences that dont always fall neatly along democracy-versus-autocracy lines. But in practice, its unlikely: The Russians dont appear to want a wider war with NATO that risks nuclear escalation, and so have avoided cross-border strikes even when it might destroy supply shipments bound for Ukraine. Beneath this rhetoric, according to experts on Russia, lies a deeper unstated fear: that his regime might fall prey to a similar protest movement. Russias vastly larger military along with its stifled domestic political opposition, free press and free speech means that there will be few checks on Mr. JagranJosh Education Awards 2023: Meet our Jury! That conflict has killed more than 14,000 people to date. The buildup of forces The battle for Ukraine began in the early morning hours, local time, on February 24, when Russian President Vladimir Putin launched what he called a special Russian bombardment of these cities has resulted in humanitarian issues, with bridges and roads damaged by the fighting and dwindling access to food, clean water, medicine, and electricity in certain areas. Nearly overnight, the Russian invasion convinced center-left Chancellor Olaf Scholz to support rearmament, introducing a proposal to more than triple Germanys defense budget thats widely backed by the German public. But despite this opacity, expert Russia watchers have developed a broad idea of whats going on there. Ukraines resistance has complicated Russias efforts to seize the country. Some experts see it as one of the key causes of his decision to attack Ukraine but others strongly disagree, noting that NATO membership for Ukraine was already basically off the table before the war and that Russias declared war aims went far beyond simply blocking Ukraines NATO bid. Poland, the primary destination of Ukrainian refugees, is currently housing over 2.3 million Ukrainians, a figure larger than the entire population of Warsaw, its capital and largest city. A month into the invasion, Ukrainians still hold Kyiv. Still, the West is starting to shift from an original hesitancy to impose the most severe costs on Russia over fears of what it might mean for Europe, the US, and the rest of the global economy and what Russia might do to retaliate. From the outset, Russias decision to invade was hard to understand; it seemed at odds with what most experts saw as Russias strategic interests. The US and its allies have said they will target Russias central bank, specifically its foreign reserves that Moscow needs to help support its currency. Russias invasion contravenes security agreements the Soviet Union made upon its breakup in the early 90s. He told us. The Biden administration is taking these threats seriously. Russia spends over 10 times as much on defense annually as Ukraine; the Russian military has a little under three times as much artillery as Ukraine and roughly 10 times as many fixed-wing aircraft. Russian forces have not made the progress they likely thought they would at the start of the campaign. Many of these countries, wary of once again being put under the Russian boot, clamored to join the alliance, which commits all involved countries to defend any member-state in the event of an attack. The war, however, poses an existential threat to Ukraine. WebIn conclusion, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is a multifaceted catastrophe that is probably going to get a lot worse in the near future. Even if it contains rigorous provisions designed to raise the costs of future aggression, like international peacekeepers, that may not hold him back from breaking the agreement. Addressing some of the most pressing questions of the whole war, from how it started to how it might end. They have repeatedly raided poorly protected supply lines. The UN General Assembly passed a resolution condemning the Russian invasion by a whopping 141-5 margin (with 35 abstentions). The international punishments have been extremely broad, ranging from removing key Russian banks from the SWIFT global transaction system to a US ban on Russian oil imports to restrictions on doing business with particular members of the Russian elite. And even if Russian morale remains low, its still possible for them to win though theyre more likely to do so in a brutally ugly fashion. NEW #Ukraine Conflict Update; Click the link to read the latest assessment from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats https://t.co/0Hb0nLSebU pic.twitter.com/RINKbJsJIM, They had maximal war aims, Michael Kofman, research director in the Russia studies program at CNA, said in an interview posted on Twitter on February 25. They had a military operation thats now in progress, first to try to achieve regime change, encircle the capital, and try to overthrow the Ukrainian government, and then a much larger set of pincer movements to encircle and envelope Ukrainian forces. The current Russian force has little sense of what theyre fighting for or why and are waging war against a country with which they have religious, ethnic, historical, and potentially even familial ties. The tougher the sanctions on Russia, the harder it will hit the US and especially European economies, so leaders are still trying to soften the impact. Why did Russia invade Ukraine? A potential invasion force, says the West. The US and its allies have only amped up the pressure since then. Russia's strongman leader speaks often of the ethnic ties between Russia and Ukraine and warns against NATO expanding further eastward toward his borders. Because Putins plan to invade Ukraine was kept secret from the vast majority of Russians, the government had a limited ability to lay a propaganda groundwork that would get their soldiers motivated to fight. Ukrainian officials have said about 11,000 Russian troops have been killed in the fighting, as of March 6, but American and European estimates of Russian casualties have been substantially lower. Financial contributions from our readers are a critical part of supporting our resource-intensive work and help us keep our journalism free for all. Its now extremely difficult to get a sense of what either ordinary Russians or the countrys elite think about the war, as criticizing it could lead to a lengthy stint in prison. The main battlefronts are in Kyivs outskirts; in southern Ukraine, including the major city of Mariupol; and in eastern Ukraine around Kharkiv, the countrys second-largest city. No-fly zones are commitments to patrol and, if necessary, shoot down military aircraft that fly in the declared area, generally for the purpose of protecting civilians. But the Russian army has not been able to completely roll over Ukrainian forces, and some analysts have suggested Moscow may have been surprised at Ukraines resistance. [But] Putin did not invade because of NATO expansion, says Yoshiko Herrera, a Russia expert at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Most Russians get their news from government-run media, which has been serving up a steady diet of pro-war content. The result - an estimated 100,000 Russian soldiers near its border with Ukraine, plus more Russian troops arriving in Belarus for snap war games. Ukraine could not succeed, in his view, because it might create a pro-Western model for Russians to emulate one that the United States might eventually try to covertly export to Moscow. I think that they want to inflict maximum damage to pressure the Ukrainian government to seek some sort of ceasefire that is effectively a surrender, said Margarita Konaev, associate director of analysis and research fellow at Georgetowns Center for Security and Emerging Technology. Putin dragged the world into this mess; when and how it gets out of it depends just as heavily on his decisions. On February 25, NATO announced that it was activating part of its NATO Response Force a 40,000-troop unit modernized after the 2014 Crimea invasion to protect allies on NATOs eastern flank. Any serious assessment of US involvement needs to start in the post-Cold War 1990s, when the US and its NATO allies made the decision to open alliance membership to former communist states. The Ukrainian uprising against Yanukovych called the Euromaidan movement because they were pro-EU protests that most prominently took place in Kyivs Maidan square represented to Russia a threat not just to its influence over Ukraine but to the very survival of Putins regime. US diplomats visited the demonstrations, in symbolic gestures that further agitated Putin. We understand what is happening; we understand that [the protests] were aimed against Ukraine and Russia and against Eurasian integration, he said in a March 2014 speech on the annexation of Crimea. They have pushed the Russians farther from Kyiv, with some reports suggesting they have retaken the suburb of Irpin and forced Russia to withdraw some of its forces from the area in a tacit admission of defeat. Residents flee from the town of Irpin, Ukraine, after heavy shelling by Russia destroyed the only escape route used by locals, March 6, 2022. While Putins force enjoys overwhelming superiority in terms of manpower and firepower, the Russian army appears to be poorly led and is increasingly demoralized. Despite outnumbering the Ukrainian air force by roughly 10 times, the Russians have failed to establish air superiority: Ukraines planes are still flying and its air defenses mostly remain in place. The Russian militarys early strategy has perplexed some experts and observers. Theyre not all the way there, however. After months of Putin building up tens of thousands of troops near the Ukrainian border and a series of failed diplomatic talks, Russia is now waging a full-out war on Ukraine. They have attacked isolated and exposed Russian units traveling on open roads. Outside of Europe, only a handful of mostly pro-American states like South Korea, Japan, and Australia have joined the sanctions regime. As a result, the Russian economy is projected to contract by 15 percent this year; mass unemployment looms. His longtime belief in the urgency of restoring Russias greatness curdled into a neo-imperial desire to bring Ukraine back under direct Russian control. Russias assault grew out of mass protests in Ukraine that toppled the countrys pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych, which began over his abandonment of a trade agreement with the European Union. Though Biden said this man [Putin] cannot remain in power in a late March speech, both White House officials and the president himself stressed afterward that the US policy was not regime change in Moscow. Germany, which has important trade ties with Russia and a post-World War II tradition of pacifism, is perhaps the most striking case. He sees CIA agents behind every anti-Russian political movement, says Seva Gunitsky, a political scientist who studies Russia at the University of Toronto. Much depends on Washington and Moscow continuing to show a certain level of restraint. But the MiG-29 incident is more the exception than it is the rule. Russian troops were advancing toward Kyiv, and thousands and thousands are fleeing in advance of a possible siege on the city. Russias invasion has gone awry for two basic reasons: Its military wasnt ready to fight a war like this, and the Ukrainians have put up a much stronger defense than anyone expected. Another part of it is corruption in the Russian procurement system. The Ukraine war has produced a similarly sized exodus in just a month, leading to truly massive refugee flows to its European neighbors. Perhaps most importantly, close observers of the war believe Russians are suffering from poor morale. What follows is an attempt to make sense of all of this: to tackle the biggest questions everyone is asking about the war. On the Russian side, an agreement is only as good as Putins word. Scholz, in his speech, did away with and overturned so many of what we thought were certainties of German defense policy.. States often cooperate to keep limits on their wars even as they fight one another clandestinely, Lyall, the Dartmouth professor, tells me. The so-called special military operation has not gone well for the Kremlin. WebRowan (2022) reports that JP Morgan estimates that twelve percent of the global oil supply comes from Russia. In late 2013, Ukrainians took to the streets to protest the authoritarian and pro-Russian tilt of incumbent President Viktor Yanukovych, forcing his resignation on February 22, 2014. But most analysts believe that neither of these is especially likely given the way the war has played out to date. What they came up with massive artillery bombardments and attempts to encircle and besiege Ukraines major cities was more effective (and more brutal). By Ivan Krastev, the chair of the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia, Bulgaria, and Please consider making a one-time contribution to Vox today. The United States and its allies around the world have condemned Russias invasion of Ukraine, and have since announced increasingly tough sanctions, intended to completely isolate Russia from the international community and inflict real economic costs. Its also worth noting that Indias prime minister, Narendra Modi, has strong autocratic inclinations. Per Kofman, the Russian military simply wasnt organized for this kind of war meaning, the conquest of Europes second-largest country by area. The battlefield failures of the Russian military have raised questions about its competence in difficult block-to-block fighting; Farley, the Kentucky professor, says, This Russian army does not look like it can conduct serious [urban warfare]. As a result, taking Ukrainian cities means besieging them starving them out, destroying their will to fight, and only moving into the city proper after its population is unwilling to resist or outright incapable of putting up a fight. At Vladimir Putins order, Russia launched a massive invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, opening the latest phase in a war that began when the Russian military seized Crimea in 2014. Indias perceptions of its strategic interests, more than ideological views about democracy, appear to be shaping its response to the war as seems to be the case with quite a few countries around the world. It was, essentially, a confession that this wasnt really about NATO, said Dan Baer, the acting director of the Europe program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Ukrainian high morale is a key reason, in addition to advanced Western armaments, that the defenders have dramatically outperformed expectations. The surrounding roads are mined and the port blocked. We accept credit card, Apple Pay, and Will you support Voxs explanatory journalism? The UN has said that, as of March 6, more than 350 civilians have been confirmed killed and hundreds more have been wounded; Ukraines emergency services puts the civilian death toll at 2,000 people as of March 2. That leaves Ukraine and the world in a perilous and unpredictable moment. Instead of getting into pitched large-scale battles with Russians on open terrain, where Russias numerical advantages would prove decisive, the Ukrainians instead decided to engage in a series of smaller-scale clashes. Russias war in Ukraine has stretched on for more than three weeks, a relentless bombardment of the countrys cities and towns that has led to more than 800 The minute NATO gets involved, the scope of the war widens.. This does not mean the risk of a wider war is zero. But Moscow has drawn out those issues to advance false claims about genocide and other attacks on civilians as a way to legitimize the separatist movement in eastern Ukraine and to create a pretext for invasion. Biden announced on the afternoon of February 24 that the United States would impose sanctions on Russian financial institutions, including cutting off Russias largest banks from the US financial system, and on Russian elites in Putins inner circle. The initial Russian campaign to invade and conquer Ukraine is culminating without achieving its objectives it is being defeated, in other words, military scholar Frederick Kagan wrote in a March 22 brief for the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank. Ukrainian officials called on residents to make Molotov cocktails to defend against the invasion. The Javelin anti-tank missile system, for example, is a lightweight American-made launcher that allows one or two infantry soldiers to take out a tank. They are defending their homes and their families from an unprovoked invasion, led by a charismatic leader who has made a personal stand in Kyiv. NATO expansion was deeply unpopular in Russia. After Putin announced the launch of his special military operation in Ukraine on national television, there was a surprising amount of criticism from high-profile Russians figures ranging from billionaires to athletes to social media influencers. More commonly, theres some kind of negotiated settlement either a ceasefire or more permanent peace treaty where the two sides agree to stop fighting under a set of mutually agreeable terms. Putins government has criminalized many forms of protests, and has shut down or restricted the activities of groups, movements, and media outlets perceived to be in opposition or associated with the West.. They reported a death total of 2,500 but cautioned that many bodies cant be counted because of the endless shelling. The situation is impossibly dire: Airstrikes and shells have hit the maternity hospital, the fire department, homes, a church, a field outside a school. The Russian military all but openly recognized this reality in a late March briefing, in which top generals implausibly claimed they never intended to take Kyiv and were always focused on making territorial gains in the east. In an essay published in July 2021, Putin argued that events of the tenth century predetermined the unity of Ukraine and Russia. But a war with Ukraine would be different and not just because it has a fratricidal feel to it. Will you support Voxs explanatory journalism? To better understand the changes taking Russia has continued to insist that a ceasefire requires demilitarization and neutrality for Ukraine, but Ukraine has only continued to push for more military aid and ascension into Western bodies like the EU, even signing an EU membership application amid the fighting. Its basically political theater.. Russias invasion of Ukraine is a clear act of aggression and a manifest violation of Article 2.4 of the UN Charter, which prohibits the use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any State. Wars do not typically end with the total defeat of one side or the other. On the whole, the United States has been strikingly willing to take aggressive steps to punish Moscow and aid Kyivs war effort. Russia-Ukraine War, war between Russia and Ukraine that began in February 2014 with the covert invasion of the Ukrainian autonomous republic of Crimea The main inflationary impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is through higher commodity prices, particularly oil and wheat. From there, the risks of a nuclear conflict become terrifyingly high. As a result, the general pre-invasion view was that Russia would easily win a conventional war. In what Anne Applebaum called essentially a call to arms," The United Kingdom and Europe added their own sanctions, imposing the massive penalties the West had been warning Putin about. Morale can shift with battlefield developments. It was about that he doesnt think Ukraine has a right to exist as a free country, he said before Putins escalation on the night of February 23. Russias problems begin with Putins unrealistic invasion plan. Putin actually really thought this would be a special military operation: They would be done in a few days, and it wouldnt be a real war, says Michael Kofman, an expert on the Russian military at the CNA think tank. On The Ukraine crisis has crossed a critical point, with Russia following up its recognition of rebel regions in eastern Ukraine (Donbas region)- Donetsk and Luhansk with a full-fledged invasion to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine. Most other countries around the world fall somewhere on the spectrum between the West and China. Though Scholz has refused to outright ban Russian oil and gas imports, he has blocked the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and committed to a long-term strategy of weaning Germany off of Russian energy. Russia amassed a large number of troops near the Russia-Ukraine border sparking apprehensions on an impending war between the two countries and possible annexation of Ukraine. For those civilians who have been unable to flee, the situation is dire. Putins nationalist rhetoric became more aggressive: In July 2021, the Russian president published a 5,000-word essay arguing that Ukrainian nationalism was a fiction, that the country was historically always part of Russia, and that a pro-Western Ukraine posed an existential threat to the Russian nation. Ukrainian forces have bogged down Russian units in towns and smaller cities; street-to-street combat favors defenders who can use their superior knowledge of the citys geography to hide and conduct ambushes. When a battle is won, its reasons Ukrainians, who sacrificed millions of lives to save the Soviet Union shelling of the southeastern Ukraine facility set off a fire, international monitors said that they do not detect elevated radiation levels, strikes have heavily damaged residential areas, and tentatively agreed on the need to humanitarian corridors, imposed the toughest financial sanctions ever on Russia, a punishment that allies had previously hesitated to pursue, that essentially denied Ukrainian statehood, including Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine and the capital Kyiv, take power into their own hands and overthrow, military aid and ascension into Western bodies, even signing an EU membership application amid the fighting, more than 350 civilians have been confirmed killed. The most aggressive anti-Russian and pro-Ukrainian positions can, perhaps unsurprisingly, be found in Europe and the broader West. Experts caution that these events remain quite unlikely. While theres always a risk of unintended escalation, historical examples like Vietnam, Afghanistan (1980s), Afghanistan again (post-2001), and Syria show that wars can be fought within bounds.. Prior to the war, Putin also appeared to be a genuinely popular figure in Russia. Soon after Putins speech, reports emerged of explosions around cities, including Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine and the capital Kyiv. Though Putin has continued to tout the threat of NATO, his speech on February 21 showed that his obsession with Ukraine goes far beyond that. Reader support helps us do that. The purpose of the strategy is to wear down the Ukrainian defenders willingness to fight, including by inflicting mass pain on the civilian populations. Ukraines far-right presence has grown and become somewhat normalized, and there are government-aligned fascist militias in the country. Its really revolutionary, Sophia Besch, a Berlin-based senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, told my colleague Jen Kirby. Powerful photojournalism has illustrated the brutal conflict in Ukraine since the Russian invasion began two weeks ago, forcing more than 2 million people to flee. But if the point is to wreak havoc and thus advance further be able to hold more territory theyre not doing fine, says Olga Oliker, the program director for Europe and Central Asia at the International Crisis Group. As the war has progressed, the widely predicted Russian victory has failed to emerge as Ukrainian fighters have repeatedly fended off attacks from a vastly superior force. Putin has said Ukrainians and Russians were one people a single whole, or at least would be if not for the meddling from outside forces (as in, the West) that has created a wall between the two. Russian President Vladimir Putin looks on during a meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow on April 20, 2022. Samuel Charap, a senior political scientist at RAND Corporation, told a panel of reporters on February 28 that Russias military performance has been odd. Ukraine's position between Russia to the east and countries such as Poland and Romania to the west means it straddles both the European and Russian spheres of influence. On March 28, the Financial Times reported significant progress on a draft agreement covering issues ranging from Ukrainian NATO membership to the de-Nazification of Ukraine. Military procurement is no exception to this pattern of widespread corruption, and it has led to troops having substandard access to vital supplies. The war, however, poses an existential threat to Ukraine. Why is Putin attacking Ukraine? Google Pay. A lot of us were really appalled that not more was done for the violation of that [post-Soviet] agreement, said Ian Kelly, a career diplomat who served as ambassador to Georgia from 2015 to 2018. It just basically showed that if you have nuclear weapons as Russia does youre inoculated against strong measures by the international community.. For the estimated hundreds of thousands who remain, there is quite simply nowhere to go. Russias invasion of Ukraine constitutes the biggest threat to peace and security in Europe since the end of the Cold War. This all does not mean that a Russian victory is impossible. That said, its possible to overstate the degree to which China has taken the Russian side. We speak about air and maritime capabilities, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said. Ukrainian officials have also accused Russia of war crimes after reports of a shelling of an orphanage and kindergarten outside of Kyiv. All signs point to Russia waking a sleeping giant of creating a powerful military and economic enemy in the heart of the European continent. 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